As regular readers already know, last week I spent Monday & Tuesday in Bielefeld, Germany at the DT Swiss Craft Bike Days. Thank you again to Rob Quirk for the invitation & DT Swiss for the hospitality! What a wonder contribution to the framebuilding & small brand community! I wanted to link to coverage from the show but looks like that will trickle out over the next few days on MTB News & Rennrad News. : )
While poking around for bike show photos I came across an industry deep dive published on Rennrad News. It references a survey conducted by Pressedienst-Fahrrad and Roland Berger among 34 executives in the DACH region and it reveals that market normalization is not expected until 2026. 🙈 (The PDF – in German – is here). My newsletter-sized cliff notes are here:
We all know the cycling industry has been in a crunch since Corona and its recovery is taking longer than anticipated due to persistent high inventory levels and low demand. Manufacturers and retailers are offering significant discounts to stimulate sales, which further impacts their profitability. The industry is also facing challenges in obtaining credit from banks, who are now more cautious about investing in the sector.
Despite the current difficulties, the future outlook for the bicycle industry remains positive. Progressive countries politcally support climate-neutral mobility goals like the EU's goal to double cycled kilometers by 2030 & these initiatives catalyse opportunities for growth. E-bikes continue to be a particular area of potential, already accounting for a significant portion of sales, especially in Germany.
The ongoing crisis is expected to have a market-cleansing effect, potentially leading to consolidation or insolvency for brands that fail to differentiate themselves. The study emphasizes the importance of building strong brand images and predicts an increase in the use of in-house components by major manufacturers. (I know somebody that can help with the brand image building, just saying!)
The industry is also focusing on improving supply chain management and increasing resilience by diversifying manufacturing locations beyond Asia to countries like Portugal, Hungary, and Poland. (And I'd add Czechia, Germany itself and even here in the Netherlands. I visited Elian Cycles last week who will be launching a made in the Netherlands cargo bike next year! They've already had great success licensing made in-house frame chassis and hubs.)
Some key takeaways from that I found useful to include here but for you to share with others too:
- 🏷️ Take advantage of current discounts: With many retailers offering significant price reductions, now might be an opportune time to purchase a new bicycle if you're in the market for one.
- ⚡ Consider e-bikes for commuting: Given the growing popularity and potential of e-bikes, especially for commuting, they could be a worthwhile investment for daily transportation needs. Especially to replace a car!
- 🔎 Research brand reputation: As the industry focuses more on brand image, take the time to research and compare different bicycle brands before making a purchase decision.
- 🧩🧩 Be aware of potential future limitations in component interchangeability: The trend towards in-house components may lead to less flexibility in replacing or upgrading parts in the future. Consider this when making a purchase, especially if you enjoy customizing your bike.
- ℹ️ Stay informed about industry developments: Keep an eye on news about manufacturing locations and supply chain improvements, as these may impact product availability and pricing in the coming years. (We have RSS feeds of many outlets piped right into a Slack channel. Currently my nº1 fave slack hack & advice I share!)
Phew! How's that for an intro! Ultimately, despite us all being stressed, I still consider us blessed. It will, after all, be bikes that save the world. Certainly not self-driving cars! ; )
Kudos to Roland, Gunnar & the Pressedienst-Fahrrad team on such an exhaustive report & thank you Gregor at Rennrad News for the distilled version!
as always, thank you for reading,
Jon
p.s.
Some cool updates from within the Workspace Six community:
- The Grid came out of stealth with a fun party at the office last Tuesday!
- Leanne of Carrie Gere is doing a Supply Vest run. These are made in WS6!
- Inspired by our Dox Under The Tracks, check out Tracks Radio & listen here.
Upcoming Events
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November
- 🇳🇱 24 A'dam CX Big Spotter's Hill
- 🇳🇱 29 Twotone Ten Year Party! (Need a place to stay or can host?)
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December
- 🇳🇱 1 A'dam CX Sloten
- 🇳🇱 8 A'dam CX De Bukt
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- 🇳🇱 15 A'dam CX ARC Ulysses
- 🇳🇱 22 A'dam CX ZWC DTS
- 🇳🇱 29 A'dam CX Uithoorn
Bikes
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The program looks pretty impressive!
A Keynote from Will Carleysmith, Chief Design and Engineering Officer at Brompton will explore how sustainability is shaping product innovation
Breakout sessions from:
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- John Marchment, Chartered Materials Engineer at Hunt, breaks down the innovative process behind Hunt’s new wheels, designed using a recyclable epoxy resin.
- Suvi Loponen, Tech Reporter at Escape Collective, delves into the role of media in supporting the cycling industry’s climate efforts and explores how sustainability can be integrated into product reviews.
- Paul Zeigle, Product Sustainability Manager at Quality Bicycle Products, discusses opportunities for the industry to build on the recently launched free Climate Action Training Course to drive collective action.
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Radness
Why are cassette and CD players so bulky now?
I recently made two mixtapes for my daughter & am kinda keen to make some Mechanics of Joy mix tapes in 2025 as a merch release. I'm a big fan of what We Are Rewind are doing and this video is interesting + steeped with nostalgia. Very rad!
Thank you very much for reading!
And here's to being too blessed to be stressed this week!
